Market news and the beginning of a new trading week
The market reduced the chances of a September rate hike, but the chances of a December rate hike still high.
The ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. Probably a small change in the risk assessment for stock assets is ahead.
This week, the focus shifts from Yellen's speech in the Senate and a series of disappointing statistics to the ECB meeting, which is expected to lead to another adjustment in the risk assessment. Despite this pressure on the dollar is likely to remain in the currency market FOREX. Last week, the dollar fell to new lows against the euro, the pound sterling, the Canadian and the Australian dollar.
According to CME, on June 15, the day after the last Fed meeting, the September futures contract for a rate hike implied an 18% probability. The value decreased even lower, to the area of â€‹â€‹10%, against the background of disappointing data on retail sales and reports on consumer price indices. Currently, September futures contracts estimate the growth rate of almost 8%.
Economic data of the US in the upcoming week is unlikely to change the mood of investors. The bill on health care reform in the Senate remains at a deadlock due to a lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans.
The ECB meeting on July 20 is the most important event this week. It is unlikely that Draghi will announce any changes in the purchase of assets. Nevertheless, the market expects that it will provide more information about its assessment of the situation.
China reported on GDP data in the second quarter. This is the first country that reports its quarterly growth rate, which rarely deviates from expectations. The Bloomberg survey showed an average forecast of 6.8% year on year, which slightly decreased from 6.1% in the first quarter.
Perhaps more interesting than China's economic data is the completion of 100 day trade talks between the US and China. China made several concessions to the US, especially in agriculture; several new deals were signed, including soybeans, pork and beef trading conditions. The reports also point to simplified conditions for biotech products and the likely increase in natural gas sales in the US.
Oil came close to the resistance of $ 49 , which is an obstacle for further gains. We can expect a small correction from this level. Kuwait said that the world's oil reserves will decline more in the second half of the year amid rising global demand for oil. Technically, with the passage and consolidation above the level of 49, we can also say that the Brent return to the area of â€‹â€‹$ 51 per barrel.