Forex Weekly Outlook - June 26-30 2017
. Janet Yellen talks: Tuesday, 17:00. The Chair of the Federal Reserve expressed lots of optimism about growth and employment while dismissing inflation on one off events. Since the rate decision, we had other Fed speakers such as Evans and Harker expressing concern, while Dudley doubled down on Yellen’s comments. Will she repeat her hawkish stance and boost the greenback? Or will she face reality? Central bankers panel: Wednesday, 13:30. Four governors will participate in a panel at Sintra: the ECB’s Mario Draghi, the BOE’s Mark Carney, the BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda and the BOC’s Stephen Poloz all talk at one event. While some of them will have had separate events to talk at, this will be an opportunity to tackle worries about inflation all at once. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. While sales of new and existing homes are quite stable, pending home sales are squeezing in the past two months. They dropped by 1.3% in May. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. With oil prices tumbling down to 7 month lows, every inventory release matters. There is also a growing inverse correlation with the US dollar. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. The second release of GDP was somewhat encouraging: annualized growth was revised up to 1.2% from the very poor 0.7% reported in the first release. A confirmation of the 1.2% growth rate is expected. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. After the EU Referendum a year ago, the UK economy continued enjoyed robust growth throughout the year. However, the first quarter already saw a significant slowdown. In the second read of Q1 GDP, q/q growth was downgraded from 0.3% to 0.2%. We now get the final read which is projected to confirm the 0.2% read. Euro zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. The European Central Bank has only one mandate: inflation. The flash read of inflation is closely watched and impacts the euro. Back in May, headline CPI advanced by 1.4% y/y while core inflation slipped under 1% down to 0.9%. Headline inflation carries expectations for a slide to 1.3% while core inflation is forecast to advance to 1%. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. This is the favourite inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, and it has been sliding. After edging closer to the 2% target, the measure slipped down to 1.5% y/y. Another drop is expected now, probably to 1.3% if the Core PCE follows the Core CPI. Month over month, a rise of 0.1% is predicted. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada reports its GDP on a monthly basis, so this time we get a look into Q2, with this report for April. Back in March, the economy grew by no less than 0.5%, encouraging the central bank to change its stance to hawkish. Can growth continue?