FxAllNews
null
advert
main970 2

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 17-21, 2018

23 October 2018 04:49 PM BDT
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 17-21, 2018

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar was under pressure for all five days, the difference between the weekly high and the low was about 200 points. Nothing special was said at the press conference following the ECB meeting, the plan to tighten the Eurozone monetary policy remained unchanged. Therefore, the main reasons for the US currency fall can be named as deflation in the US, called by the experts "the Fed's nightmare", and the decision of the Turkish regulator to increase the interest rate by as much as 625 points. This resulted in the Turkish lira going up and pulling up not only the currencies of developing countries, but also the euro.Experts had pointed to the upper boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1530-1.1745 as a ceiling for the EUR/USD growth last week. And this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: the maximum was fixed at 1.1725, and the end of the five-day period was met by the pair at the level of 1.1622;

- GBP/USD. In general, the weekly chart of this pair is very similar to that of the EUR/USD. On Friday, September 14, the British pound rose to 1.3147, reaching a six-week high. The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney helped his currency. In his view, the lack of an agreement on Brexit will cause a crisis that will lead to a fall in the pound, which will result in a higher inflation, which, in turn, may force the British regulator to raise the interest rate. As for the last week, the final chord here sounded at around 1.3065;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which had been given by graphical analysis on D1, had provided for the pair to grow to a height of 112.15. It was this height that the pair reached at the end of the week. It is interesting to note that while the dollar fell against many other currencies, it was actively growing against the Japanese yen. The reason for this is most likely the expectation of the start of a trade war with the United States to start and the strong dependence of Japan on the Iranian oil. As a result, the pair's growth was about 100 points in five days;

- Cryptocurrencies. As was expected, at the beginning of the week the bears tried to break through the $6,000 level, but they have not succeeded to drop bitcoin below the mining profitability zone. When approaching this level, coins are bought out, and the pair BTC/USD goes up again. However, neither the forces nor the reasons for its revolutionary growth are yet sufficient. As a result, a fairly quiet scenario was implemented last week, and the pair stayed within 6,120-6,590.As for Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), the movement of these pairs can also be considered a side movement: after the mid-week fall, they were able to almost restore their positions by the end of the five-day period.

***As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, no particularly important events are expected in the coming week. It is unlikely to expect surprises from European statistics on Monday and the speech of the ECB head M. Draghi on Tuesday. Most of the oscillators (60%) are painted in neutral grey, among the remaining, "green" has a certain advantage, 30%, the share of "red" is only 10%. "Bullish" sentiments prevail among the experts: 55% of them vote for the further growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845.Graphical analysis on H4 believes that the pair will remain in the corridor 1.1525-1.1745 with Pivot Point in zone 1.1630. But on D1, it does not exclude the fall of the pair to the August lows in zone 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. 60% of experts, inspired by Mark Carney and supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators, trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue its growth to the zone of 1.3210-1.3315.20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and another 20% are confident that the dollar will recover its positions and the pair will go down to supports 1.2955 and 1.2800. The final target is at the low of August 15 at the level of 1.2660. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it specifies that the pair can grow to resistance 1.3210 before going south;

- USD/JPY. The formation of trends can be influenced by the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, September 19 and the decision on the interest rate, which is now negative and is -0.1%. Undoubtedly, a lot will depend on the situation with trade relations between the US and China, as well as President Trump's desire to open another front of the trade war, this time with Japan. It is these factors that will determine the market's opinion on whether it is worth considering the yen as a safe haven.At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for the return of the pair first to zone 111.00, and then to the support of 110.35, 15% of the oscillators agree with this, signaling the pair is overbought.An alternative scenario, the growth of the pair to a height of 113.20, is supported by 35% of experts, 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1. 15% of the analysts surveyed could not determine the opinion;

- Cryptocurrencies. The stay of the BTC/USD in the corridor between $6,000 and $7,000 indicates that the market is now dominated by short-term speculators. Major long-term players have taken a wait-and-see position, while keeping a strong interest in cryptocurrencies. But it is only them who can initiate a new rally and a massive influx of funds to this market. Meanwhile, the total capitalization fluctuates around the figure of $200 billion, updating local lows repeatedly. Thus, on September 12, the next one was touched, at the level of $186 billion, after which the market returned to $200 billion. It is not excluded that we will see another attempt of the bears to break support at $6,000 next week. However, if bitcoin manages to gain a foothold above the horizon 6,620, the pair has many chances to return to the high of September 5 at the height of 7.410

Roman Butko, NordFX

Add Your Comment
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 8 - 12, 2018)
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 8 - 12, 2018)
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 01 - 05, 2018.
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 01 - 05, 2018.
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 24-28, 2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 24-28, 2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 17-21, 2018
Forecast Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 17-21, 2018
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 17 - 21, 2018)
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 17 - 21, 2018)
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 10-14, 2018
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 10-14, 2018
Forex Technical Reviews for Silver and Gold September 2018
Forex Technical Reviews for Silver and Gold September 2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 03-07, 2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 03-07, 2018
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (August 27 – 31, 2018)
This pair gained a minimum of 200 pips last week, thus forming a bullish signal in the short-term. Further bullish movement
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (August 20 - 24, 2018)
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (August 20 - 24, 2018)
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 20-24, 2018
GBP/USD. It seems that even the impressive volume of retail sales cannot assist the British pound: fears about the tough scenario Brexit outweigh everything. Most analysts
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 13-17, 2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 13-17, 2018